Home prices increased 6.8 percent from a year ago to a national median sale price of $293,000 in July. This represented a slight decline of 0.3 percent from June. The median value of off-market homes in July was $249,000, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from June.
Sales in July declined 3.5 percent compared to last year, constrained by a low supply of homes on the market.
“In the first half of the year, the housing market was able to keep its head above water, despite high prices and low inventory, because buyer demand was so strong,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Multiple months of inventory declines took a toll on sales as buyers took a breather in July to wait for more listings. Despite last month’s sluggishness, the number of homes sold in the first seven months of the year was up 4 percent compared with the same period last year.”
The number of homes for sale fell 11 percent, marking 22 consecutive months of year-over-year declines in inventory. July had a three-month supply of homes–higher than June’s record-low 2.5 months–but still well below the six months that represent a market balanced between buyers and sellers. The inventory shortage is being felt nationwide. With the exception of Newark, N.J., and Miami, Fla., every metro Redfin tracks had less than six months of supply.
The inventory pinch is acute in California and the Pacific Northwest, with less than a two-month supply of homes in San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno, San Diego, Seattle, Tacoma and Portland. That strain is also being felt in the Midwest. Omaha and Grand Rapids also faced less than two months of supply.
Inventory increased year over year in just 11 of the 74 metro areas we track. Texas and Louisiana were two bright spots; inventory was up in Austin (14.4%), Houston (8.9%), Baton Rouge (18%) and New Orleans (11.8%).
The typical home that sold in July went under contract in 37 days, tying June’s record-setting pace. In three of the four most recent years, July and June have had the same number of median days on market. Portland and Seattle were the fastest-moving markets, with the typical home in each market finding a buyer in just eight days. More than a quarter (25.7%) of homes sold above their list price.
Forty-six percent of homes listed for sale in July were priced higher than their concurrent Redfin Estimate, a measure of a home’s value and prediction of its eventual sale price, compared to 52 percent in June. The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 100.2 percent, which means the typical home for sale last month was priced in line with its estimated value.
Today we introduced new metrics that report on off-market home values, based on data from the Redfin Estimate, Redfin’s automated home-value estimate. This information is helpful for homeowners looking to understand how the value of their home changes over time. The homes that sell in a given month are a small fraction of all homes and are not necessarily a representative sample of the overall housing stock. The median Redfin Estimate tracks the value of the typical home in each metro area over time. *In this report we introduce data on month-over-month changes in Redfin Estimate values and we plan to add year-over-year data once we have enough historical data to do so.
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Redfin Estimate
Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio is also provided for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more where Redfin Estimate is available. Redfin market data is based on the Metropolitan Statistical Area definitions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.
