Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months after the May CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. That could bring back some demand; for now, home sales are still declining.
The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9, up 4.4% year over year–the biggest increase in about three months. But there are signs that home-price growth could ease soon. Asking prices have leveled off, and 6.5% of home sellers are cutting their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. Prices are already declining in four U.S. metros: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX and Portland, OR.
Meanwhile, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment dipped to $2,829, which is $30 below April’s record high. Median housing payments have fallen slightly since April despite record sale prices because weekly average mortgage rates have declined to 6.99% .
Mortgage rates are likely to decline further over the summer, which would keep monthly housing costs from spiraling up again. Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12 after the latest CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. And although the Fed forecast just one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible the Fed wasn’t able to fully consider the fresh inflation data in time for the meeting; they may revise their projection at the next meeting. (It’s worth noting that daily rates have been volatile for the last several days; they soared after last Friday’s hot jobs report before dropping back down).
“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”
For now, high costs are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year, the biggest decline in over three months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 18%, sitting at its lowest level since February. But there is one encouraging sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up 7.8% year over year, but they’re below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices keep rising despite tepid demand.
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
