Home price growth was strong in October, up 7.1 percent compared to a year ago to a national median sale price of $288,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were essentially unchanged from October of last year, down 0.1 percent. Home sales have declined year over year for the past four months.
“Despite strong buyer demand, sales are sputtering due to low inventory,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The last time we saw a substantial increase in the number of homes for sale, Donald Trump was a candidate in a Republican field of 11.”
Nationally, the number of homes for sale plunged 12.2 percent, the sharpest year-over-year decline in inventory since 2013. There was a 3.1-month supply of homes in October. Less than six months of supply signals the market is tilted in favor of sellers. We have not seen more than 6 months of supply in any month since January 2012.
The low-inventory situation is particularly stark in West Coast markets. The San Jose metro area saw the steepest year-over-year inventory drop and the sharpest corresponding price increase. There were fewer than half as many homes for sale in October as there were a year earlier, sending prices up 19.2 percent to a median of $1.05 million. In San Jose the typical home that sold last month found a buyer in 12 days.
Just eight of the 74 metros Redfin tracks posted year-over-year increases in inventory. These rare supply gains were seen primarily in smaller markets in the Midwest and the South, including Austin, New Orleans, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville.
Nationally, the typical home spent 44 days on the market, five days fewer than last October. Last month, average sale-to-list price ratio was 98.2 percent, up from 97.9 percent a year earlier, and 22.5 percent of homes sold above their list price, compared with 21.5 percent in October 2016.
“The House of Representatives and Senate are debating tax reform proposals that could have a significant impact on homeowners, particularly in states with expensive homes and high property taxes like California, New York and New Jersey,” said Richardson. Both the House and Senate versions of the tax-overhaul proposal include some reduction of the state and local income- and property-tax (SALT) deductions, and the House version of the bill proposes changes to the Mortgage Interest Deduction.
Nick Boniakowski, Redfin market manager in Northern New Jersey, reports that the uncertainty is leading some prospective homebuyers to take a step back from the market while they wait to see what happens with the tax bill and how it could affect their budgets. Still, many are pressing forward with their home purchases, knowing the bills are subject to change and both the timeline and likelihood of passage are unclear.
“If either of the current bills were to pass, it’s likely that buyer demand would weaken in expensive, high-tax states, especially for homes at higher price points, though any market shifts will be gradual,” said Richardson.
The median value of off-market homes in October was $251,000, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from September. Consistent with September, 43 percent of homes listed for sale in October were priced higher than their concurrent Redfin Estimate, a measure of a home’s value and prediction of its eventual sale price. The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 100.2 percent, which means the typical home for sale last month was priced in line with its estimated value.
Other October Highlights
Competition
Prices
Sales
Inventory
The Redfin Real-Time Housing Market Tracker is a monthly analysis of home prices, competition, sales volumes and inventory levels across the markets that Redfin serves nationwide. The analysis is based on data from the Multiple Listing Services of which Redfin is a member. The monthly data may change after publishing as additional real estate transactions are recorded.
Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750,000 or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.
