Key Takeaways:
Home prices finished the year strong, up 6.8 percent in December from last year to a national median sale price of $287,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were down 2.4 percent ending a year of fluctuating sales growth. The number of homes for sale declined 14.5 percent compared to a year ago, marking 27 months in a row of inventory declines.The typical home that sold in December found a buyer after 49 days on the market, five days fewer than 2016.
“Like last year, low inventory will be the biggest driver of the 2018 real estate market,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Major housing market dynamics don’t shift dramatically when the clock strikes midnight on Jan. 1. We anticipate a continuation of the same trends we’ve been seeing for the past few years. Price growth will remain strong as many homeowners will remain deterred from selling due to the low mortgage rates they’ve locked in and the high price of their would-be move-up home.”
The number of homes newly listed for sale in December decreased 3.0 percent. With just 2.6 months of supply in December, the market was far below the six months of supply that represents balance between buyers and sellers.
San Jose had only 0.5 months of supply in December, the lowest monthly supply Redfin has recorded in any metro area. This means that if the pace of home sales continued and no new homes were listed, it would only take about two weeks for all the homes currently for sale to find buyers. Seattle and Oakland also faced extremely tight markets with just 0.6 months of supply in December.
Unsurprisingly, San Jose was the fastest and most competitive market in December with the typical home finding a buyer in a median of 12 days, followed by Seattle and Oakland at 15 and 16 days respectively. More than three-quarters (76.2%) of San Jose homes sold above the list price. Of all the metro areas Redfin tracks, San Jose has had the steepest year-over-year price growth and inventory declines for three months in a row.
Redfin San Jose agent Kalena Masching says that despite the high prices (her market had a median sale price of $1.1 million in December) San Jose remains more affordable than San Francisco.
“Even highly-paid tech workers are priced out of San Francisco and moving to San Jose. This demand coupled with low inventory and job growth at the tech campuses in the South Bay has caused prices to soar.”
The median value of off-market homes in December was $250,600, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from November. Consistent with November, 42.9 percent of homes listed for sale in December were priced higher than their concurrent Redfin Estimate, a measure of a home’s value and prediction of its eventual sale price. The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 100.2 percent, which means the typical home for sale last month was priced in line with its estimated value.
Competition
Prices
Sales
Inventory
Methodology
The Redfin Real-Time Housing Market Tracker is a monthly analysis of home prices, competition, sales volumes and inventory levels across the markets that Redfin serves nationwide. The analysis is based on data from the Multiple Listing Services of which Redfin is a member. The monthly data may change after publishing as additional real estate transactions are recorded.
Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.
