Remote workers seeking space for offices and a simpler lifestyle are searching for homes in places like Lake Tahoe, Santa Cruz and Cape Cod. Meanwhile, big cities like New York are cooling down.
Housing markets in vacation destinations and relatively affordable suburbs of big cities have heated up more than any other area over the last year, a time period that starts with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. Places like Lake Tahoe, Cape Cod, and suburbs of Chicago and New York City are gaining popularity as homebuyers take advantage of remote-work policies to prioritize affordability and personal preferences like proximity to nature and recreation over living near the office.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have heated up most over the past year, and the 10 that have cooled down most. Our ranking is based on year-over-year change in home prices, home sales, the share of homes that sold above their list price, the speed of home sales and Redfin.com searches.
El Dorado County, CA—an area that spans from the eastern outskirts of Sacramento to the southern part of Lake Tahoe—is number one in our ranking, with measures of homebuyer competition growing more than any other U.S. county over the last year. Home prices increased 36% year over year in January, and the median number of days on market fell 50 days from the year before.
“Parts of El Dorado County, like Lake Tahoe and the upscale community of El Dorado Hills, have been hot throughout the pandemic, partly thanks to remote work,” said local Redfin agent Ellie Ruiz Hitchcock. “About half of buyers in El Dorado Hills are coming from the Bay Area and half are locals, including people coming from neighboring Sacramento, who are upgrading their homes. Tech workers moving out of Silicon Valley are seeking larger homes, more overall space and simpler lifestyle at a fraction of the cost. Most homes in the area are receiving multiple offers.”
The Sacramento metro area, where El Dorado County is located, is perennially one of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users looking to relocate to another metro. Scroll down for a full table of the top 10 counties.
Next comes Santa Cruz County, located about 75 miles south of San Francisco and popular with surfers, beachgoers and hikers. Santa Cruz is close enough to Silicon Valley and San Francisco that a remote worker could drive into the office a few days a month, but far enough away that a daily commute would be quite time-consuming. Though it’s the most expensive area in this ranking, with the typical home selling for $1 million, that’s still more affordable than the $1.34 million median in San Francisco.
Deschutes County, OR and Barnstable County, MA—home to Bend and Cape Cod, respectively—are also among the top 10 places heating up most with the pandemic. Like Lake Tahoe and Santa Cruz, many remote workers are taking advantage of newly enacted remote-work policies to move to these vacation destinations, which are both popular with people seeking relaxation and outdoor recreation.
Bend Redfin agent Amy Mora said some out-of-towners are moving to the area permanently, buying primary residences, and some are purchasing second homes. Demand for vacation homes is soaring, with mortgage applications for second homes increasing 84% year over year in January.
Kendall County, IL, Charles County, MD and Orange County, NY—home to suburbs located roughly 50 miles away from Chicago, Washington D.C. and New York City, respectively—have also seen a surge of homebuyer interest over the last year. While home prices have risen roughly 20% year over year in each of those counties, prices are still significantly lower than their big-city neighbors. The typical home in Charles County sells for $350,000, versus $610,000 in the District of Columbia, and the typical home in Orange County sells for $345,000, compared with $1.1 million in Manhattan.
Arlington County, VA, home of Amazon’s second headquarters in Crystal City, is ranked number one on the list of housing markets that have cooled down most over the last year. But the housing market is so hot throughout most of the country that even in the market cooling most, prices are up 4% from last year and 23% of homes are selling above list price.
That’s an about-face from late 2018, 2019 and early 2020, when homebuyer interest in the areas surrounding Crystal City surged after Amazon’s HQ2 announcement. At that time, local buyers and investors were snapping up properties in the hopes of buying before prices went up with the expected influx of Amazon employees. But with the surge in remote work over the past year, living close to the office isn’t as important as it once was and housing markets in expensive job centers are suffering. The cooldown in Arlington County is particularly drastic because it was skyrocketing a year ago, just before the onset of the pandemic. It’s also worth noting that Charles County, MD and Frederick County, MD, both part of the Washington, D.C. metro and home to farther-flung D.C. suburbs, are both on the list of places heating up most.
“Although single-family homes in residential parts of Arlington County are still hot and most are receiving multiple offers, condos have cooled down since the pandemic started a year ago,” said local Redfin agent Mara Gemond. “Arlington County is developed along a transportation corridor, with dense, high-rise condos located within two or three blocks of metro stations, then townhouses a little farther away, then single-family once you get out into the residential neighborhoods. Those blocks right next to the metro have taken a nosedive because people want bigger houses, they don’t want to share spaces with their neighbors and they’re realizing they don’t need to live close to transportation if they’re not commuting into the office.”
Suffolk County (Boston), the District of Columbia, and the counties that make up the New York City boroughs of Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan are all among the counties cooling down most. The typical home in all of those places sells for more than $600,000, nearly double the national median of $330,000. New York City and Washington, D.C. are both on the list of places with the most Redfin.com users looking to leave for a different area.
“The housing market in New York City will come back, but it hasn’t come back yet,” said local Redfin agent Ken Wile. “It’s a good time to buy a condo or a co-op in Manhattan or Brooklyn, but it’s very difficult for sellers. A lot of people want to move out to the suburbs, but they don’t know what to do with their homes in the city. It’s not just that places aren’t selling; it’s also tough for homeowners to rent anything out for a reasonable price. Some owners are taking a loss because they can’t get enough rent money to cover expenses.”
Butte County, CA ranks eighth on the list of counties cooling the most. It’s home to Paradise and several other small towns that have been ravaged by northern California wildfires over the last several years. Home values in Paradise dropped 20.5% year over year in October, a bigger decline than any other place in the U.S.
It’s also noteworthy that San Francisco County (the same geographic area as the city of San Francisco), which has been the poster child for remote workers fleeing expensive cities during the pandemic, fell off the list of the top 10 places cooling down most. Still, it remains in the top 15.
This report provides a prediction of the U.S. housing markets that have heated up and cooled off the most by creating a ranking of U.S. counties based on year-over-year growth in the following metrics in January 2021: median sale price, median days on market, number of homes sold and share of homes that sold above list price. To make it into the ranking, counties had to have at least 30 home sales in January 2021. The net inflow of Redfin.com users searching online for homes in each county during the third quarter also factored into the ranking.
