The typical renter household could afford half of the homes in only five of the nation’s largest markets in 2019, according to an analysis by Redfin.
To determine the share of homes sold that would be affordable to renters, Redfin took the median household income for renters and then calculated the maximum home price that resulted in a mortgage payment of 30% or less of the renter’s monthly income, assuming a 5% down payment and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate from four weeks prior to each home sale.
The five markets with the highest percentage of homes affordable to the typical renter were Oklahoma City (58.5%), Buffalo (56.5%), Rochester (55.9%), Cleveland (51.2%) and Cincinnati (50.1%). These were the only markets with at least half of homes affordable to renters.
All five of the least-affordable markets for renters were in California. In San Jose the typical renter could afford just 2.4% of the homes sold in 2019, despite having the highest home price ($497,000) that’s still affordable to renters. Rounding out the least-affordable list were Los Angeles (3.3% of homes affordable to renters), San Diego (3.6%), San Francisco (5.8%) and Sacramento (7.0%). The only two areas outside of California where fewer than 10% of homes were affordable to renters were Portland, OR (8.6%) and Denver (9.6%).
“Entry-level homes are farther and farther out of reach for renters across much of the nation thanks to rising home prices,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “The fact that rents are increasing too also gives renters little opportunity to save up a down payment. The only saving grace for renters hoping to become homeowners in the current housing market is low interest rates.”
Between 2014 and 2019, metro areas of at least 1 million people saw the share of homes affordable to renters drop by a median of 5.4 percentage points. When we analyzed the change in share of homes affordable to renters between 2014 and 2019, we found that while many California cities have the fewest homes affordable to renters, those cities did not experience the biggest changes in affordability. Instead, the metros with the biggest percentage decline in affordability for renters were Las Vegas (-37.2%), Orlando (-22.6%), Tampa (-19.5%), Minneapolis (-17.4%), and San Antonio (-15.5%).
Denver, one of just two non-California areas where less than 10% of homes are affordable to renters also experienced a dramatic 15-percentage-point decrease in that affordability dropping from 24.7% in 2014 to 9.6% in 2019.
“It is tough on renters who are trying to become homeowners in our market,” said Denver Redfin agent Stephanie Collins. “Unfortunately, in our HGTV world many homebuyers have unrealistic expectations about what they can afford on their budget. First-time buyers want a move-in ready home, and when they finally find one that is in great condition and checks all their boxes, inevitably every other buyer in their price range is also bidding on it. Some first-time buyers are opting to wait a little longer and save up more money so they can get more of what they want.”
The percentage of affordable homes for renters increased in only seven of the 50 metro areas we analyzed: Oklahoma City (+9.6 percentage points), Birmingham (+7.8), Philadelphia (+7.7), Rochester (+2.6), Buffalo (+0.7), Pittsburgh (+0.4), and by a very small margin New York (+0.1). Prices still increased in all of these markets, but the impact of lower mortgage rates and rising incomes of renters made more homes affordable.
There is crossover between the places where at least 50% of homes are affordable to renters and the metros becoming more affordable: Oklahoma City, Rochester and Buffalo were on both lists. It’s also worth mentioning that Rochester ranked first, Buffalo ranked second, and Oklahoma City ranked thirteenth on our list of metros with the lowest risk of a housing downturn in the next recession.
To calculate the share of homes sold affordable to renters we took the median household income for renters, then calculated the maximum home price that could be purchased with a mortgage payment that takes no more than 30% of income, assuming a 5% down payment and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate from four weeks prior to each home sale. The share of homes affordable is the percent of homes sold during the year with a price at or below that maximum home price.
