U.S. home-sale prices edged up in April, growing 2.8 percent from a year ago, to a median of $307,600 across the metros Redfin tracks. This marks a rebound from March’s slight year-over-year price decline–the first since early 2012–and a return to the around 3 percent growth rate we were consistently seeing at the end of 2018 and January of this year. That pales in comparison to the 7 to 9 percent home-price increases we had become accustomed to by this time last year, but it represents a much more sustainable level of growth.
Only five of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks saw a year-over-year decline in their median sale price, the biggest of which were a 5.0 percent drop in San Jose, a 1.8 percent dip in New Haven, CT and a 1.3 percent decline in Seattle. The other two price declines were in San Francisco and Portland, Oregon, both of which saw prices fall just 0.1 percent from a year earlier.
”Homebuyers should take April’s home-price rebound as a cue that the cooldown may be coming to an end,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “The good news is that even though home prices are rising again, mortgage rates remain below last year’s levels and are unlikely to tick back up in a meaningful way this year. While buyers no longer need to feel as much urgency about locking in a low rate before they go back up, buyers who wait too long may face more competition and see home prices rise as a result.”
Home sales, while essentially flat nationwide (-0.6%), were down from a year ago in about half of metro areas, with 41 having seen a decline in April.
The markets that posted the largest year-over-year sales gains and the ones where sales fell the most last month tended to be relatively affordable. This marks another reversal from March, when the areas that posted the biggest sales declines were much more expensive than those that saw sales surge the most.
The parity in prices between metros with sales gains and those with sales declines likely contributed to the rebound in the national median price last month. One notable outlier in April was San Jose, the second-most expensive metro in our analysis, where sales fell 10.8 percent.
“When mortgage rates go down, as they began to do in late November, it takes a few months for buyers to react,” explained Fairweather. “Expensive metros like Seattle and Los Angeles have been the most sensitive to changes in rates because you have to borrow more to afford a home in those markets. Home sales are still down year over year in these places, but by less than last month, thanks to mortgage rates remaining low.”
The number of homes for sale as of the end of April was up 3.1 percent from the same time last year. This was the smallest year-over-year increase in home supply in seven months. The number of homes newly listed for sale last month increased 0.7 percent year over year, following two straight months of declines.
The median number of days on market for homes sold in April fell to 40—just as quick as the same time a year earlier in the heat of the 2018 spring market frenzy, which was a lot more competitive for buyers than it is right now. Other measures still indicate that the market is cooler than a year ago. In April 23.7 percent of homes for sale had a price drop, up from 21 percent last year. And last month 22.4 percent of homes sold for above list price, down from 26.8 percent last year.
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Redfin Estimate
Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.
